Mets vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks – August 4

Mets vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks – August 4

Updated August 4, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET

Pete Alonso and Jose Ramirez will be among the stars to watch when the New York Mets take on the Cleveland Guardians on Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The odds makers have listed the Mets as -203 favorites on the moneyline, while the underdog Guardians are given +168 moneyline odds to win. New York is also favored on the run line (-1.5) and the total for this matchup is set at 8 runs.

Here’s everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Mets-Guardians game, including the run line, moneyline, total, and expert picks. Keep up with MLB on FOX Sports.

Mets vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

When: Monday, August 4, 2025 at 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Citi Field in Queens, New York
How to watch on TV: SNY and CLEG

Favorite Moneyline:
Mets -203
Underdog Moneyline:
Guardians +168
Total:
8
Over Total Odds:
-110
Under Total Odds:
-110
Run Line:
Mets -1. jolo manansala5 +109
Guardians +1.5 -130

Mets vs. Guardians Prediction

Score Prediction: Mets 6, Guardians 5
Total Prediction: Over 8 runs
Win Probabilities: Mets 54%, Guardians 46%

Mets vs. Guardians Betting Insights

This season, the Mets have won 50 out of the 79 games they were favored in, which is 63.3%. New York is 16-3 this season when entering a game as favorites at -203 or higher on the moneyline. The moneyline indicates a 67% chance of victory for the Mets. Meanwhile, the Guardians have won 26 out of 62 contests as underdogs this season, giving them a 41.9% success rate ka game. Cleveland has a 1-5 record when favored at +168 or worse this year, with an implied win probability of 37.3% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Mets Recent Betting Performance

The Mets went 3-3 in their last 10 matchups where they were favored on the moneyline. In those games, they and their opponents went over the run total four times. The Mets have a 5-5-0 record against the spread in their last 10 games.

Mets Recent Stats

Stat | Avg/Total
Record: 5-5
Runs Per Game: 4.7
Home Runs: 10
ERA: 4.59
K/9: 8.6

Mets Player Insights

Juan Soto leads the Mets with 25 home runs and ranks 11th in MLB for home runs and 31st in RBI mlbb m5 schedule 2023. He has recorded a hit in three consecutive games, batting .158 with an RBI over his last five outings. Pete Alonso has 86 RBIs with a batting average of .260, which are both team highs. He is ranked 13th in homers and fourth in RBI this season. Francisco Lindor boasts a arthur embiid.251 average with 21 doubles, 21 home runs, and 36 walks, entering this match with a three-game hitting streak. Brandon Nimmo leads the team with a .260 batting average, hitting .263 with a double, two walks, and three RBIs in his last five games.

Mets Team Props

Player	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Pete Alonso	0.5 (-230)	1.5 (+105)	–	0.5 (+130)
Mark Vientos	0.5 (-195)	1.5 (+135)	–	0.5 (+180)
Juan Soto	0.5 (-225)	1.5 (+105)	–	0.5 (+140)
Jeff McNeil	0.5 (-210)	1.5 (+130)	–	0.5 (+155)
Francisco Lindor	0.5 (-215)	1.5 (+120)	–	0.5 (+170)

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

Over their last 10 games, the Guardians played as underdogs thrice, winning just one of those matches. They have gone over the total five times in those games. The Guardians are 4-6-0 against the spread in their last 10 matches.

Guardians Recent Stats

Stat | Avg/Total
Record: 5-5
Runs Per Game: 4.6
Home Runs: 11
ERA: 3.40
K/9: 9

Guardians Player Insights

José Ramírez leads the Guardians with 23 home runs and 61 RBIs, boasting a team-high batting average of .302. He has hit in five straight games, achieving a .450 batting average over his last five outings. Steven Kwan is batting .281 with 20 doubles, nine home runs, and 40 walks this season, while Carlos Santana has eight doubles and 11 home runs with a .230 average. Kyle Manzardo has hit .235 with 18 home runs and 33 walks so far.

Guardians Team Props

Player	Hits O/U	Total Bases O/U	HR O/U	RBI O/U
Steven Kwan	0.5 (-225)	1.5 (+155)	–	0.5 (+285)
José Ramírez	0.5 (-265)	1 game 1 nba finals 2023.5 (+105)	–	0.5 (+150)
Angel Martinez	0.5 (-210)	1.5 (+145)	–	0.5 (+245)
Slade Cecconi	–	–	–	–
Johnathan Rodriguez	–	–	–	–

What are your thoughts on this matchup between the Mets and Guardians?